第一章  引言

1.1  建筑项目全球展望

1.2  研究目的、问题、模型及假设

1.3  研究方法论

1.4  研究组织结构

1.5  结论概要

1.6  论文概要

第二章  文献综述

2.1  影响建筑业成本绩效的风险因子

2.2  中国的特有风险

2.3  施工风险如何影响成本绩效

2.4  施工项目风险管理

2.5  与成本风险管理有关的关键业绩指标（KPI）

2.6  研究模型

2.7  本章  总结

第三章  研究方法论

3.1  根本哲学

3.2  实证研究方法论

3.3  本章  总结

第四章  数据分析

4.1  研究问题

4.2  因子分析

4.3  改进研究模型

4.4  多元回归分析

4.5  分析和成本绩效的建模

4.6  本章  总结

第五章  讨论

5.1  研究概要

5.2  影响成本绩效维度的十个风险因子

第六章  研究结论

6.1  研究概要

6.2  研究问题回答

6.3  理论与实践内涵

6.4  对知识体系的贡献

6.5  研究的局限性及其建议

Chapter One

Introduction

The construction industry plays a significant role in the development and achievement of the goals of our society all over the globe.In China like other countries，the construction industry is one of the major industry which contributes to more than 10% of the gross domestic product（GDP）.Achieving good performance at certain specified standards，especially cost performance，is one of major criteria of project success.Although in China a great amount of money has spent on construction projects，the construction industry is encountering a lot of risks that affect the performance of the construction industry such as poor management and leadership，project complexity，incorrect planning，fraudulent practices and kickbacks，etc.，which lead to cost overrun，time overrun，budget overrun，and so on.

Based on the above considerations，this thesis focused on identifying，analyzing，and assessing the impact of risks of construction on the cost performance in the Chinese construction industry from the contractors perspective.Risk factors identified through literature review and expert interview were analyzed and assessed with statistical tools to determine the rank order of risk factors affecting the cost performance of the construction industry，and then to establish the correlation between the risks identified and cost performance through the special case of Chinas construction industry，and finally，to try to reduce the correlation by identifying key performance indicators（KPIs）and thereby reduce the impact of risk on cost performance.

1.1The Global Outlook of Construction

1.1.1Global Construction Investment

According to a study conducted by CIDB，（www.cidb.org.za），investment in global construction is about 10% of the global economy.Infrastructure investment and construction becomes the momentum of the world economic recovery again after the global financial crisis taken place in 2008.In response to the international financial crisis，governments of many countries have heavily invested in infrastructure construction to boost economic activities.Infrastructure investment has proved to be the largest expenditure in all countries’fiscal stimulus.It is widely considered that infrastructure projects are the key to lay foundations for new job opportunities and higher productivity and growth.By Peoples Daily Online，various kinds of infrastructure investment will continue to expand due to the high demand for infrastructure as a result of the recovery of the world economy.The report titled“Infrastructure to 2030”by OECD shows that global infrastructure needs are growing，with around US$50 trillion required for investment in roads，water，electricity，telecommunications and railway in OECD countries between 2005 and 2030.

According to data（2009）produced by the World Bank，the total gross capital formation represents as much as 19 percent of the Gross Domestic Product（GDP）in the world，over 40 percent in East Asia and Pacific region（only developing countries），and more than 47 percent in China.The following is the recent ten-year percentage of the gross capital formation which represents the gross domestic product（GDP）in the world，in East Asia and Pacific region，and China，respectively（see Table 1-1 and Figure 1-1）.

From this table，we find that although the gross capital formation by the world is declining a little，the percentage is still high；the gross capital formation is increasing year by year in East Asia and Pacific region to 40 percent of GDP（2009）；especially in China，the gross capital formation accounts for over 47 percent of the gross domestic product（GDP）in 2009，that is，almost half of the gross domestic product（GDP）is spent on new capital formation.

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